by Chris Allison (@neboweb) Social Media Strategist at NeboWeb.
I’ll cut to the chase. Twitter isn’t a fad. It’s not going away. Let me tell you why:
They Have Industry Recognition
Industry giants can be intimidating for any new business, especially on the web. Since Twitter’s inception, we’ve seen multiple companies make offers to acquire the young service, and we’ve seen multiple companies get turned down. A lot of people were thinking, “Hey, why didn’t they take the money and run?” I know I was. But, it seems the folks at Twitter had bigger and better things on their mind.
Besides fighting off the temptation to give into lucrative acquisition offers, Twitter has had to face the looming threat that all startups face: what happens when Google decides to do what you’re doing? Yikes. This question has gotten even scarier for social startups – what happens when Facebook decides to do what you’re doing? Double yikes. But, Twitter has stood the test of time and managed to fight off the major industry players. Facebook users can update their Twitter accounts with a simple application, fan pages have a built in utility to update Twitter accounts, and Google and Bing are now showing Tweets in their search results. Win. Win. Win. Win.
There Is No Replacement
Besides fighting off internet giants like Facebook and Google, you would suspect that Twitter would also be facing heavy competition from copy cat services. After all, making a micro blogging platform isn’t that difficult, but, then again, the platform itself isn’t Twitter’s main advantage over competitors. Those trying to duplicate Twitter’s service would be faced with overcoming Twitter’s first mover advantage, their piles of funding, and their existing relationships (see paragraph above). With all of these advantages, it’s no surprise there hasn’t been much real competition from similar services. Simply put, if Twitter were Myspace, there is no Facebook.
The Mobile Web Is Here
So, maybe Twitter isn’t falling to competition any time soon. That doesn’t mean people won’t just quit using it. What’s to keep Twitter from becoming just another Second Life? The answer is mobile. There are three reasons why mobile is important to Twitter’s success:
- Mobile is easy. Instead of using an isolated desktop application or piece of software that limits use to specific times and places, mobile presents an easier, less cumbersome way for people to use Twitter: on the go, anywhere, anytime.
- Mobile is real. Because Twitter can be used and viewed on the go, its content is more than just tech talk floating in cyberspace. It’s real updates about things beyond the monitor: Mobile brings the value of conferences, speeches, concerts, accidents, crimes, parades, inaugurations and more to the folks who weren’t there.
- Mobile is the direction the internet is headed. E-marketer estimates US penetration will near 100% by 2013. And, it’s not just talking and texting anymore. The mobile web is here.
Unlike Second Life, Twitter doesn’t propose an alternate reality. It proposes a simple way to better understand our current reality. Tweets ranging from “what I had for breakfast” to “Michael Jackson died” give followers world-wide a better grasp on the activities and thoughts of real people.
Twitter isn’t for everyone. Some people just aren’t interested in real-time news, objects of local interest, or the status updates of friends and family, but an increasing number of people are. With their sealed market position and a platform that makes mobile usage easy and compelling, Twitter isn’t going anywhere soon. If you’ve been waiting for the fad to fade, get ready for a long wait.
Image via xotoko on Flickr
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@timeontaskva
I definitely don’t think it’s a fad… but I would love to see some improvements on reliability and support for both Twitter and Facebook – even if it means the unmentionable!
@nwjerseyliz
It’s been around for 3 1/2+ years. I think that duration disqualifies it from being a fad.
@neboweb
Kathy,
I would definitely appreciate some improved support as well — been frustrated by that recently. Hopefully soon Twitter will start making money and start improving support.
Liz,
I agree that it’s not a fad, but I’m not sure that being around 3.5 years qualifies it as not being a fad. While it may seem like a long time for an internet company, it’s a small amount of time in the long run. Either way, I think Twitter is here to say for a while longer, too.
@marketingfails
I agree it’s definitely not for everyone. Sometimes I feel “What the heck I’m doing in here” but yet again, it’s been 2 years since I started. I feel connected and human, not a puppet like most media makers treat their supporters. Do this, do that, click here, click that. With Twitter is always “Hey, welcome back! Here’s what’s new!”. Chris, also before I go, the links to the twitter pages from the comments are linking to “twitter.org”. Just an FYI. See you soon! –Paul
@onviolence
I agree that Twitter will be around, and will be around for a while, but I don’t think you can say it will continue to hold a position of dominance or even popularity.
I think myspace is the best example. Because of shoddy programming, lack of genuine users and excessive spam, its popularity has plunged. I think twitter has the same problems.
Finally , who’s to say what stays popular? Look at how many websites have gone down already. its too early to say this one is going to stay.
@eblogtip
Nice post, this is the first time to read this blog but I find it very useful
@lucnypes
Definitely Twitter is getting better. I’ve been there for only two weeks and they launched lists and now enhanced retweet.
@rhyswynne
No it’s not a fad, but interesting statistic on the 100% penetration of Mobile web in the US. In the UK it’s currently at 16%, so there’s a massive room for growth, so services such as Twitter will only grow.
@BillyMacDonald
Great piece. Since definitely isn’t a fad the next question is what’s next? Undoubtedly within the next year a new social media website will take off. I’m thinking foursquare. What do you think?
@neboweb
Billy,
I think foursquare will be successful for similar reasons (mobile), but one thing that distinguishes them is their talent for monetizing, which Twitter has yet to nail down.
@ilijabrajkovic
Definitely there is the future in micro blogging networks. Nobody can’t copy Twitter, but there is also some space niche micro blogging networks. For example, you can use http://www.shoutem.com and create your own micro blogging network. It won’t be large as Twitter, but it can be very useful for communication.
@Blogercise
I think it is too early to tell myself. Sure, big businesses are jumping on it – but are they seeing a good ROI? Personally I’d rather go direct to a company’s website to catch up on the latest news rather than hope I catch one of hundreds of messages that spew past the screen.
More people are realising that Twitter is only useful if you actually follow people you want to follow. Many of us never went down the blanket follow route in the first place and those that are finally getting it are unfollowing everyone and just adding those they care about.
Handling the onslaught of spam is going to be critical too. All too many people are using it just for marketing and this is diluting the quality. If this continues I for one will be turned off. Too many people seem to be on Twitter for the sake of being there without really knowing why, or with the hope of trying to capitalise on it! When I do a search for a product most of them are just sales messages – this needs to be addressed.
I don’t think it is going to disappear, but I am yet to be convinced it will be a real rival to websites, rss and email. Seriously, why does any one look at twitter for train times and not the train company’s website? I don’t get it! On their site there is a fantastically designed app that’s only purpose is to communicate rail information to me. Or I could try and scrape the info off Twitter? Hmmm.
Who are you kidding? Twitter is more a fad than pez. If history proves anything, a quick ascent foreshadows an even quicker fall. Ride it while you can.
@Dietdewtime
Sorry for an opposing view here and I am sure that the Twitter zealots will not be pleased, but I see Twitter’s popularity drastically fading in the next two years. Maybe even extinction. Sorry, that’s my crystal ball.
As for the three points from the original blog:
1) They Have Industry Recognition … Well, that has never eliminated anything from being a fad. In fact, sometimes it helps defines it as a fad. Widespread recognition via hype and a passionate following help fuel fads.
2) There Is No Replacement … The social media sites mentioned in this very point are in fact replacements. FaceBook status, as an example is an easy replacement. Is it a strict micro-blogging site? Of course not, but it has a micro-blogging component that is easy to use.
3) The Mobile Web Is Here … Quite true. And Twitter has no lock on that technology or medium. So the mobile world isn’t a fad, it is a real trend. But that doesn’t mean that Twitter won’t fall into a fad status.
If you consider that a fad is a practice, interest, or product that is followed for a time with exaggerated zeal. Twitter can easily fall into that category. Already over 20% of those who sign-up for Twitter never post a single tweet. And something like 75% of the tweets are done by only 5% of those who are on Twitter. Relatively small amount of zealots, with lots of buzz and offline media hype, attracting lots of folks that end up never understanding or using it.
Plus, even real Twitter fans are becoming disillusioned with tons of spam followers, performance problems, and lack of real sustainable value. Sounds like the makings of a potential fad. Time will tell. Like in about two years….
@neboweb
Tom,
I welcome your view and am always happy to read well thought out feedback. You make some good counter-points. We’ll just have to wait and see.
@RichCurrie
I do agree in part I think it will change as time goes by, in fact it must if it is to suvive. They do need to work on their interface. It’s pretty bad when a third part app is better than their own.
@kristinasummer
When I first hear of Twitter, I admit that I did think it would be short lived, but through my own research and through my job in public affairs I have come to realize that Twitter is so much more than just a way to keep up with friends, family and business. I now use it to measure brand awareness, consumer satisfaction, needed improvements and so forth. It has become such a valuable tool and it continues tool and it continues to get better everyday. Anyone who thinks Twitter or any form of social media is a fad should definitely do their homework!
I’m not sure if you mean the concept of microblogging or Twitter specifically, but “They Have Industry Recognition” and “There Is No Replacement” are not reasons microblogging will or won’t be a fad. Fads always have industry recognition and replacement possibilities have nothing to do with whether something lasts or not. As far as “The Mobile Web Is Here”, I’m not really sure that tells much about whether microblogging is a fad or not either.
Oops, I did read a most of the comments but didn’t make it down to Tom’s in which he basically made my points more eloquently.